Master of Advanced Studies
in Humanitarian Logistics and Management

Scenario Planning as a Method for Imagining Possible Futures

This course examines concepts, tools, and a method for conducting scenario analysis, defining strategic project objectives and project strategy, and allocating resources to a portfolio of strategic projects. 

Historically, smart managers have frequently made wrong assumptions about the future with great certainty.  Scenario planning is a disciplined method for imagining possible futures that is designed to overcome common decision-making errors such as overconfidence and the tendency to look only for confirming evidence of current beliefs. Once managers have developed a more robust view of the future, they can more effectively define sets of projects to build future organizational competencies.  This course will also examine project objective definition and present heuristics for project strategy and execution in complex and uncertain environments.

Objectives    

Construct scenarios scalable to any organizational need

Define a strategic project’s objectives and strategy

Evaluate alternative projects for resource allocation

Topics

Focus Question, Time Frame, Hexagons or Affinity Diagram;

Stakeholder list, Stakeholder x Issues Matrix;

Behavior-over-time Chart, Causal-loop Diagram;

Uncertainties, Possible Outcomes, Uncertainty Correlation Matrix;

3 ways to construct initial scenarios;

Learning scenarios, researching scenarios;

Early indicators, Scenario Matrix;

Analytical Prioritization Matrix.